Russia’s Dangerous Decline

Addressing vulnerability and promoting security
Posted Nov 03, 2022 | Foreign Affairs

Rather than facing a total collapse, the Russian economy is likely headed toward scarcity, autarky, and a steady decoupling from the global economy, suggest Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman in their Foreign Affairs article. As conditions deteriorate, the Kremlin will grow more desperate, resorting to shadowy or illicit means to get by and flouting the rules that govern global commerce in which it no longer has a stake. The more marginalized and threatened the Kremlin becomes, the less predictable and restrained its behavior will be. There will be a post-Putin Russia that will provide a chance to reestablish guardrails on the relationship. In the near term, Washington and its allies should keep working to reduce the risks of escalation – especially of a nuclear exchange – and to diminish Russia’s ability to wage a full-scale war.


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