Geopolitical Scenarios 2030
The
UN World Population Prospects (2015 Revision) provides a baseline projection for the global population in 2030: 8.5 billion people (Developed countries 1.3bn; Less Developed Countries 7.2bn) and for the urbanised population: 5 billion people (Developed countries 1bn; Less Developed countries 4bn). Relevant variables for geopolitical scenarios in 2030 are:
Technology proliferation and adoption; Regulatory and Normative [in]coherence; Characteristics of the
Global Economic Landscape; Conditions in
[North]-East Asia;
Approaches to MECSA (Middle East, Central and South Asia)
and Africa; and
Environmental Constraints and Pressures. Four indicative scenarios, from a computed series of 3840, were selected for consideration in a presentation by Seán Cleary to the
IATA 2016 General Meeting in Dublin on 2
nd June, 2016:
· Cyber-(and other) wars
· Follow the Flags
· Scorched earth: Gaia’s Revenge
· Global rebalancing: Golden Mean
Related Articles:
