Geopolitical Scenarios 2030

Improving global governance
Jul 11, 2016 | Seán Cleary, Executive Vice Chair, FutureWorld Foundation

The UN World Population Prospects (2015 Revision) provides a baseline projection for the global population in 2030: 8.5 billion people (Developed countries 1.3bn; Less Developed Countries 7.2bn) and for the urbanised population: 5 billion people (Developed countries 1bn; Less Developed countries 4bn).  Relevant variables for geopolitical scenarios in 2030 are: Technology proliferation and adoption; Regulatory and Normative [in]coherence;  Characteristics of the Global Economic Landscape; Conditions in [North]-East Asia; Approaches to MECSA (Middle East, Central and South Asia) and Africa; and Environmental Constraints and Pressures.  Four indicative scenarios, from a computed series of 3840, were selected for consideration in a presentation by Seán Cleary to the IATA 2016 General Meeting in Dublin on 2nd June, 2016:
·         Cyber-(and other) wars
·         Follow the Flags
·         Scorched earth: Gaia’s Revenge
·         Global rebalancing: Golden Mean

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