The Asymmetric Impact of War: Resilience, Vulnerability and Implications for EU Policy

Addressing vulnerability and promoting security
Posted Jun 23, 2022 | Intereconomics, Giuseppe Celi, Jelena Reljic, Dario Guarascio et al

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unleashed supply and demand shocks, slashing growth, fueling inflation and raising new challenges for the EU’s fiscal and monetary policy. Two distinct but related aspects influence the assessment of vulnerability to war: the EU’s dependence on imports from Russia and Ukraine and the differential impact on individual countries. In their paper for Intereconomics, Giuseppe Celi, Jelena Reljic, Dario Guarascio et al assess the economic implications of the war, focusing on member states’ relative vulnerability. Key channels considered are the employment share of energy-intensive industries; import dependency with respect to energy goods, key raw materials and intermediate goods; and production linkages.  The paper concludes by discussing the potential risks of adopting a wartime agenda for EU economic policy.


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