Predicting Irregular Migration – High Hopes, Meagre Results

Addressing vulnerability and promoting security
Oct 16, 2023 | German Institute for International and Security Affairs

German and European migration policyoperates in a state of permanent crisis. Sudden increases in irregularimmigration create perceptions of a loss of control, which is exploited by populistforces. This has led to great interest in quantitative migration predictions,generating high expectations of the the AI-based tools currently underdevelopment to forecast irregular migration. Addressing the effects ofirregular migration requires an ability to provide rapid and effectiveassistance in humanitarian crises, ensure control of external borders, maintainap­pro­priate capacity for refugee reception, and manage labour migration inline with the needs of the labour market. Based on conversations with representativesof German Federal Ministries and agencies, research consortiums and NGOs, SteffenAngenendt, Anne Koch and Jasper Tjaden note in their article for the GermanInstitute for International and Security Affairs that there is a need for abetter understanding of the political function and benefits of migration pre­dic­tions.They focus on two fields: predictions of irregular migration to Germany and theEU; and predictions of forced displacement in regions of conflict and crisisoutside the EU, including climate-related displacement.

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