The Trade War and the U.S. Election: What’s at Stake for Developing Countries?
While some developing countries have benefited from trade diversion and supply-chain shifts, others, especially resource-exporting nations and the least-developed countries, have faced significant challenges. In his article for
the Policy Center for the New South, Hinh Dinh examines the origins and escalation of the trade conflict, analyzing its impacts on global trade patterns and economic growth. He presents data showing that almost every country group, except OECD countries, has experienced a decline in its trade-to-GDP ratio. The author outlines three potential scenarios based on the outcome of the U.S. election: a shift towards reconciliation, continuation of current trends, or increased protectionism. Each scenario presents unique challenges and opportunities for developing countries. Exploring the concept of ‘friend-shoring’ and its potential impact on Africa, the study points to the continent's notable absence from major friend-shoring initiatives, and the risks this poses to its economic prospects.
https://www.policycenter.ma
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