The expert community overestimated Russian military capabilities dismissed the chances of Ukraine resisting effectively, and presented the likely outcome of the war as a quick and decisive Russian victory. Eliot Cohen and Phillips O'Brien note in their report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies that this analytic failure had policy implications. Pessimism about Ukraine’s chances restricted military support before February 24, 2022. Once the war began, some of Ukraine’s international allies hesitated to supply advanced weapons, in part out of the belief that Ukraine would prove unable to use them effectively. Today, such hesitation remains, with Ukraine still lacking the weapons systems it needs. Thorough consideration of why responsible and expert analysts made egregious misjudgments is, the authors argue, the best way to avoid a similar outcome in this part of the world or elsewhere. https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com

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