Losing the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella: Can Europe Compensate for a U.S. Exit?
As the United States withdraws from Europe, NATO may lose a large part of its nuclear arsenal, suggests Fabian Hoffmann in his article for
Missile Matters. Unlike European nuclear-powers, Russia places significant emphasis on non-strategic nuclear options, both in doctrine and in procurement priorities. In the author’s view, a scenario in which Russia retains multiple options for managing escalation at the sub-strategic nuclear level, while European NATO states have very limited ways of responding, could create dangerous ‘deterrence gaps’. If Russia believes it can outmaneuver its European adversaries by escalating to non-strategic nuclear use while European nuclear weapon states lack viable response options, it may be tempted to exploit this asymmetry. To address this, European nuclear weapon states may need to invest more in their own non-strategic nuclear options and adapt their doctrines accordingly, especially if the U.S. nuclear arsenal were to vanish from the continent.
https://missilematters.substack.com
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