Taking the Pulse: Can Europeans Build Their Independent Extended Nuclear Deterrent?
The United Kingdom and France would be the most likely alternate providers of extended nuclear deterrence for Europe, although, the UK withdrew from the European Union, questioning its willingness to provide a nuclear umbrella, and its credibility as a provider of nuclear deterrence for Europeans. Rym Momtaz, in this article for the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggests that France could be a more likely provider, to gauge from President Macron’s rhetoric on European security. France has stayed outside NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group, and neither the left nor the right in French politics is likely to approve its acting as a nuclear security provider. Alternatively, as recent comments from leaders indicate, Germany and Poland, the largest frontline NATO states, could seek to build their own nuclear deterrents. Confronted with a U.S. disengagement and the Russian threat, Europeans are now reviewing their stance on nuclear deterrence.
https://carnegieendowment.org
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