Navigating between Stasis and Chaos: Crafting a Course through Disruptive Storms
The world is at an historical inflection point, defined by a shift in the geo-economic centre of gravity from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific; a lesser capacity by the United States to project power across the globe to maintain the “rules-based international order” that it redefined after the collapse of the USSR in1991; heightened geopolitical tensions pitting great powers – notably the US, Russia and China – against one another, within what Russia and China perceive to be their spheres of influence; a weakening of national governance in a highly connected world triggering social tensions and the rise of nationalist populism; and system-wide stresses on the environment due to the impacts of a growing, rapidly urbanizing human population on the earth system. This disruption is occurring as mutually agreed rules are fracturing, also because of the sense in the “Global South” that the West is applying the values and principles of the “rules-based international order” inconsistently vis-à-vis Russia in Ukraine, Israel in Gaza Lebanon and Iran, and in wars in Sudan, and countries in the Sahel. Conflict management and resolution are rendered greatly more difficult by the erosion of widely-accepted principles of international law – jus cogens – to which those seeking to mediate between conflicting parties, can turn in addressing conflicts. Aggravating this challenge, we are on the cusp of the deepest and most wide-ranging technological revolution in human history – involving not only GenAI and other innovations in information technology which pose challenges to digital trust, but breakthroughs in biotechnology; converging with nanotech capabilities; and advanced experimentation in neuro-technologies. This conflation of transformative technologies is redefining both the meaning of knowledge – long assumed to be a human prerogative, but now potentially available to GPT, with the potential to evolve into artificial general intelligence – and the essence of human ontology. In this paper for the
Salzburg Trilogue 2025, Seán Cleary argues that the confluence of these circumstances is causing a failure of the quantum of collective action needed to address systemic risks and protect the global commons - including climate, oceans and biodiversity- thus threatening human survival. He calls for urgent action, notably by the states of the European Union, to engage, also with the PRC, to end the wars in Ukraine and the Levant; accelerate reform of the UN system and the WTO; strengthen governance of AI and other emerging technologies; while exploring their use to promote constructive citizen engagement and enhance the efficacy of governmental processes.
Link for the Salzburg Trilogue -
https://liz-mohn-stiftung.de
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